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pick history

Past Picks

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NFLTampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
LINE MOVEDACTIVE
Make playoffs +110(DraftKings ↗)
Miss playoffs +105(MGM ↗)

+3.6% edge ✔

$1,000 → $1,037 profit

$494 / $506 split

258d to NFL Regular Season End

3.73% ROI

5.32%/yr

posted Mar 20, 2026resolves NFL Regular Season End (258d)
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NFLIndianapolis Colts to make the playoffs
LINE MOVEDACTIVE
Make playoffs +180(DraftKings ↗)
Miss playoffs -150(Caesars ↗)

+4.3% edge ✔

$1,000 → $1,045 profit

$373 / $627 split

258d to NFL Regular Season End

4.48% ROI

6.4%/yr

posted Mar 20, 2026resolves NFL Regular Season End (258d)
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NHLHurricanes First in Metropolitan Division
ACTIVE
Win Metropolitan Division -1100(FanDuel ↗)
model probability95.6%
book implied (FanDuel)91.7%
model edge(model − book implied)+3.9%
fair odds from model-2173

No two-sided arb yet — second book price needed at +2173 or better on the miss side to complete the play.

FanDuel 91.7% implied vs model 95.6% — 3.9% edge on the yes. Need miss at +2173 or better to complete the arb.

posted Mar 18, 2026resolves NHL Regular Season End
NHLDucks to make the playoffs
ACTIVE
Make playoffs -120(BetMGM ↗)
Miss playoffs +150(FanDuel ↗)

+5.5% edge ✔

$1,000 → $1,058 profit

$577 / $423 split

5.77% ROI

Big gap across books. MGM pricing them in, FD still leaving value on the miss.

posted Mar 17, 2026resolves NHL Regular Season End
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NFL49ers to win the championship
ACTIVE
Win +1000(DraftKings ↗)
No -800(Bally's ↗)

+2% edge ✔

$1,000 → $1,021 profit

$93 / $907 split

2.06% ROI

DK outlier on the long side. Bally's heavy juice on the no.

posted Mar 17, 2025resolves Feb 8, 2026
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